My “predictions”

OK, let this be a lesson to me that I have NO IDEA what I’m talking about when it comes to predictions.  Let’s visit what I got wrong, shall we?

Of the Swing States, I think Obama will win Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

What actually happened:

Obama won Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

McCain held North Dakota and Missouri

I think McCain will hang on to Arizona, Montana, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.

What actually happened:

Obama won North Carolina (which was the biggest shocker of all to me), Indiana, and Florida.

McCain won Arizona and Montana.

I don’t think there will be any other surprises, but I think it will be very close in Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Indiana.

Surprises?  Indiana, North Carolina, that freaking one electoral vote in Nebraska.  Turns out Ohio, Colorado, and Florida weren’t so close after all.

With those results:

Obama: 325 Electoral Votes

McCain: 213 Electoral Votes

Hooboy.  Wrong again.  Actual results:

Obama: 364

McCain: 174

Wow.  Even I was thinking it would be closer than that…

I think Obama will win the popular vote easily, with a 10% margin.

He did win the popular vote easily, but not with a 10% margin- he only made it to 8%.  That, however, is still quite remarkable.  Especially when you consider that it works out to somewhere near 8 MILLION votes.  Wow.

I don’t think the Democrats will get to the magic number of 60 votes, but I think they will win at least 56 with Kay Hagan (NC), Jean Shaheen (NH), Al Franken (MN), and Begich (AK- the guy running against Ted Stevens) all winning.  I hope, hope, hope to see Jim Martin defeat the detestable Saxby Chambliss in Georgia.  In fact, I actually donated money to Jim Martin’s campaign because I hate Chambliss so much, but I don’t think Martin will be able to win.

What actually happened:  They didn’t get to 60, but at the moment they are sitting happily at 57 with Kay Hagan (Yay!) and Jean Shaheen winning outright.  Frankin and Begich are still undecided- with an automatic recount in the Franken race because it is so close and Begich and Stevens still waiting for the tens of thousands of absentee, early, and provisional ballots to be counted.  At this point, Franken is trailing and Begich is leading- but they are both far from decided.  And on that note, WTF, Alaska?  HE’S A CONVICTED FELON!

The excellent news out of Georgia is that they are going to a runoff!  Chambliss won by a little, but in GA candidates must get at least 51% of the vote to win.  Chambliss only got 49.8%  Runoff is on Dec 2.  Here’s hoping Dems will come out again!

I think the Democrats will do well in the house as well, but I’m not following those races enough to be able to predict anyone winning.

And they did, quite well.

I don’t think there will be any snafus of a Florida 2000 level, but I think there will be several states that finally come in very late and very contested tonight.

I don’t think it will matter.  Obama will win early.

I was actually correct on all of these predictions.  Looks like everything went smoothly and quickly.  NC and MO were very late in reporting- in fact, CNN STILL hasn’t called MO for McCain, though most others have.

But I was right.  I didn’t matter.  Obama DID Win early.  Considering that in 2004 I was weeping at 4 AM and Kerry didn’t concede until the next day, getting to bed before 1 AM was quite wonderful!  And we knew he won much earlier that that.  As soon as Ohio was called (and on some stations, as soon at PA was called), people knew McCain was done.  I just stayed up to watch the speeches.


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